The big story is that Medvedev is in his 6th consecutive final. I always found his tennis refreshing and seeing him play around with his service location and try to change this up signaled he was one to watch out for. His summer has just been amazing. You have to look back to Wimbledon to see a time when Medvedev has not is the final.
Medvedev v Zverev past encounters H2H (0-4)
This will be the fifth encounter between the two players. Zverev has won all the previous 4. The first in 2016 at the ATP St. Petersburg tournament where he won 63 75 and also went on to win the tournament. The second encounter was to take place the following year in 2017 in Washington which Zverev won 62 64 and again went on to win it the tournament.
Their last two matches took place last season in 2018 at two ATP 1000 events just like this one in Shanghai is. The match from Miami was their only 3 set match. Zverev edged it in the third set tie-break 64 16 76(5). Zverev did manage to get to the final of the Miami tournament but lost in the final to Isner.
And the last match was 2018 in Toronto which Zverev won again 63 62.
Despite the H2H looking rather bleek, it’s slightly misleading because Medvedev was a different player back then. This summer was very much the breakthrough everyone was waiting for.
Zverev managed to back up his win over Federer with the win over Berrettini, but the italian started the match a bit nervous and never seemed to settle. Before Federer he played Rublev in a match where he won 60 the first set but was about to get himself in a sticky situation but managed to dodge it by winning the second set in a tie-break.
The summer of Daniil
So it’s been the summer of Daniil winning 2 of the 5 finals played. He won in Cincinnati and St. Petersburg while losing the Washington final to Nick Kyrgios, the Toronto and US Open finals to Nadal.
With Daniil being able to serve very well, and play very well both on the defensive and offensive I have to favor him to take this one. Especially if he is able to frustrate Zverev.