Probable starting eleven:Chelsea: Cech, Azpilicueta, Terry, Cahill, Ivanovic, Lampard, Matic, Hazard, Oscar, Schurrle, Eto’oArsenal:Szczesny, Gibbs, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Sagna, Flamini, Arteta, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cazorla, Rosicky, GiroudChelsea are closer to the victory. I see four reasons for my pick. The first is connect with the home advantage. The Blues are unbeaten in their last 25 games on home soil. The stadium Stamford Bridge is like a fortress. Chelsea have the tightest defense in the Premier League, conceding just 23 goals.Next, Chelsea secured quarter-final in UEFA Champions League after they eliminated Galatasaray on Tuesday. On contrary, Arsenal were eliminated from Bayern Munich. It is clear the atmosphere is much better in Chelsea squad.The third reason is connect with the fact that Arsene Wenger will be missing the key midfielder Mesut Ozil through injury. The absence of Ozil is a big handicap for Arsenal. In addition, Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere, Theo Walcott and Abou Diaby are also sidelined.The last reason is connect with the tradition. Jose Mourinho has never lost a game in charge of Chelsea against Arsenal in all competitions (W5, D5). Chelsea won three of the last four mutual games and one match ended with goalless draw. Here are the results:23.12.2013. Arsenal – Chelsea 0:029.10.2013. Arsenal – Chelsea 0:2 – Capital One Cup20.01.2013. Chelsea – Arsenal 2:129.09.2012. Arsenal – Chelsea 1:2Chelsea should win here.